Science Focus
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Chaos theory is sometimes described with an exaggerated story about the flapping of a butterfly’s wings affecting the formation of a hurricane thousands of miles away. Some “butterflies” flap harder than others, of course—a volcanic eruption can be one hell of a butterfly. According to a new study, the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, which made a dent in the average global temperature for a couple of years, may also have a lot to do with the slower surface warming more than a decade after its eruption.
Research has made it clear that a string of La Niñas—where cold water rises to the surface in the eastern tropical Pacific—has pulled down average global temperatures in recent years. The oscillation between La Niña and El Niño conditions is a major factor in the year-to-year variability of average global surface temperatures.
So why has the coin flip come up “La Niña” so frequently lately? It appears that stronger trade winds over the Pacific—which blow westward, pushing warm surface water in the tropical Pacific as they go and bringing up the cold waters of the La Niña—are responsible. And so, you should be asking, why have the trades strengthened?
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