Science Focus
original post »The last several years have left California facing a series of water emergencies, as the usual winter rainfall hasn't materialized. The drought has been associated with a ridge of high-pressure air off the Pacific Northwest coast, which prevents storms from the Western Pacific and Alaska from reaching California. That ridge, in turn, has been associated with warm sea surface temperatures in the area.
Beyond the immediate causes, however, it's reasonable to ask whether the drought is a symptom of a warming climate, and thus whether we should expect more of them in the future. Several papers have already looked into the matter, with mixed results. But now, NOAA has weighed in with a report that pins the blame on natural variability. But the report has come under criticism from some scientists, and it may have been finalized before some recent, relevant papers.
There are a number of ways to ask whether a particular event (or, in this case, a series of events) is natural or driven by human influences. Events should not be viewed as conclusive on their own, but collectively, they can build a case. The NOAA report tries a number of these.
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