Science Focus
original post »Hurricanes, and tropical cyclones more generally, are dangerous forces of nature that damage even the most well-developed societies. In the US, the devastation caused by hurricanes can last for years. When it comes to the conditions required for hurricanes to develop, some scientists are concerned that an increase in ocean warmth caused by climate change could have unforeseen consequences. But there has been debate over precisely what those consequences will be. Fewer or more hurricanes? Greater hurricane strength?
A team of scientists has performed a new exploration of the global tropical cyclone response to ocean warming. This study specifically examines the frequency, intensity, and activity of cyclones with a lifetime-maximum wind speed exceeding 17 m/s (about 37 mph—well below the 75 mph threshold for a category 1 hurricane).
The scientists analyzed the influence of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which indicates naturally fluctuating ocean temperatures in the equatorial pacific (El Niño), as well as the overall sea surface temperature (SST), which indicates global ocean warmth. Overall, the global mean SST has increased by 0.3°C over the past 30 years.
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» see original post http://feeds.arstechnica.com/~r/arstechnica/science/~3/EzUUDFtC5Ow/
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